What began as Tropical Storm Hilary off the coast of Mainland Mexico strengthened into a hurricane early Thursday.
The latest 2 p.m.update from the NationalWeatherService indicated the maximum sustained winds had dropped to 130 mph.
Thats at the bottom end of Cat 4.
Hurricane Hilary wind forecast as of Friday afternoonNOAA
The storm was about 360 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas by late morning on Friday.
More substantially, for the first time it has the track over Southern California with the letter S attached.
That means Hilary is expected to still be a tropical storm while roughly over San Diego County.
Hurricane Hilary on Thursday morning (NOAA)NOAA
See track map below.
On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over the weekend.
No tropical cyclone has made landfall in California at hurricane intensity in recorded history.
Earlier today, the National Weather Service issued thefirst-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California.
Normally, 67 or 68 degrees is the warmest coastal ocean temperatures get in the summer in Los Angeles.
Still, hurricane tracks are tricky to predict, especially days out.
So the probability of a very anomalous rain event is certainly increasing.
But thats the low end.
August is generally L.A.s driest month, with an average annual rainfall of 0.
Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt.
The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit.
It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center.
