Hollywood is at a crossroads and the 160,000 actors that make upSAG-AFTRAare seemingly in the drivers seat.
Will there be anactors strike, on top of the writers strike, which is in its ninth week?
What happens if there are two strikes?
(L-R) HBO’s ‘House of the Dragon’, the Emmys and ‘Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One’HBO; Penske Media; Everett Collection
Will SAG-AFTRA extend its negotiations with the studios and then strike?
Or will they extend and strike a deal?
Would an actors strike compound the pain across the entertainment industry that is already reeling from the writers strike?
Last year’s Comic-Con in San DiegoFrazer Harrison/Getty Images
[This year], I havent heard of anyone.
Some shows such asApplesMetropolis, from Sam Esmail, have been shut down entirely.
However, if the actors walk, there would be more casualties.
FILM
A full-on SAG-AFTRA strike definitely would mean a shutdown of feature Hollywood productions worldwide.
Currently, there are no plans by the major studios to move 2023 titles into 2024.
Comic-Con is set to announce its full lineup after July 4.
Some plan to return to production in the fall, but not all can.
There is hope, however, inwaivers for qualified independent films.
Its a big issue for productions looking to start in July.
Last time around, waivers required agreeing to final deal terms.
Most actor pay goes to big stars who are paid above scale anyway.
Obviously everybody was at Berlin and Cannes selling projects not yet made, the source added.
My guess is they went to contract and got their clearances from SAG before we hit this speed bump.
But maybe not so fast because of hyped-up activity on picket lines.
Theres production risk if actors who can work dont want to cross.
If the union grants the waiver, and the talent refuses to work, where do you take that?
You still dont have a film.
You might have a lawsuit, said the source.
For future U.S. projects, we are only looking at those which plan to start shooting in 2024.
But for now, its relatively quiet before the storm.
One festival head said of the potential impact on its A-list fall event: Its too early to know.
Weve not [directly] had any signs from the studios or talent so far.
Another fall festival head said: So far the potential strike isnt impacting our planning.
We are going ahead assuming there will be talent at our event and on the carpet.
Studios and streamers havent mentioned the strike yet.
Should it happen, its force majeure.
Nothing it’s possible for you to do.
The pandemic has taught us to live with uncertainties.
It doesnt seem to be significantly impacting at the moment, said one publicity source.
Some are bringing international junkets forward, but that doesnt help the festivals.
Projects have been shut down, and schedules are being pushed.
The length of any SAG strike will be crucial.
Netflix benefits from a deep backlog as well as international content that is unaffected by strike.
Wall Streets focus remains on television for now.
A theatrical squeeze is farther out, given long lead times.
Studios dont have much in active production, and the independent film impact is hard to measure.
A corporate boon from the strikes: higher cash flow since studios are not writing as many checks.
The next stream of financial results and commentary is set to start in July, hopefully providing more clarity.
Comcast is the least leveraged and most diversified.
Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount appear the most exposed to a prolonged strike, Wall Streeters said.
Even so, There is nothing you’ve got the option to do on it research-wise.
Its a very, very qualitative, very, very hard to predict issue, added Supino.
Its like the weather.
